Agricultural Commodities and Trade Data Assignment

Assignment Task

Select an agricultural (eg. dairy, beef, grain) or horticultural commodity (eg. wine grapes) that is covered by ABARES at their annual Outlook Conference, or the ABARES publication Australian Commodities.

Part A

Write a short term outlook (approximately for 3 years past the data you find) for your selected commodity.

The outlook should contain:

• A chart - Use Excel or other spreadsheet program to graph (XY scatter graph) Price (y axis) against Time (x axis) for established time-series data collected from ABARES/other sources. A linear trend line showing the equation (mathematical relationship) should be included on the graph. A description of the trend in the graph and the predicted price in 3 years time.
• An examination of the reasons for the established trend. The reasons need to be justified/supported with creditable evidence.
• Evidence should be cited. To site evidence you need to use the APA referencing style. Help on referencing is available at:
• A reference list should be included with your assignment.

​​Part B

Explain how supply and/or demand conditions could affect the prices received by producers of your selected commodity.

To complete Part B fully you need to answer the following:

• Identify a price peak and a price trough in the chart and discuss these events in relation to the demand and/or the supply factors in the past.
• Research the demand and/or the supply factors, including international factors and currency movements, that are likely to drive price formation for your commodity in future, reflecting on the trend line established in Part A.
• Include a reference list using the APA referencing styles.

Note: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) produce time series data for Australian commodities that are published annually in Australian Commodity Statistics Agricultural commodities and trade data - Department of Agriculture Agricultural outlook Agricultural outlook - Department of Agriculture and reports Agricultural outlook - Previous reports - Department of Agriculture

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