Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Future Inflation - Econometrics Report Writing Assessment Answer

Assignment Task:

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Future Inflation - Econometrics Report Writing Assessment Answer

Task Description

Let's consider a hypothetical student called Johnny:

n0 = number of (D) votes that Johnny receives from his teammates. A (D) means that Johnny has contributed nothing.

n1 = number of (C) votes that Johnny receives from his teammates. A (C) vote means that Johnny contributed less than what was agreed by the group.

GROUPMARK = Johnnyís group submission mark

If n0+n1 >=2, then

Johnny's mark for the assignment = maxf0;(1 0:4 n0 0:15 n1)g GROUPMARK

and Johnnyís mark for the assignment = GROUPMARK otherwise. If you do not complete this survey before the deadline, we will assume that you have given everyone else in your group a (B), but have given yourself a (D).

Failure to complete the survey will result in a loss of marks. It is important to communicate well with your group members and make sure that everyone understands what is expected from them.

Altogether, your report should not be more than 8 pages including its reference list and paragraphs clearly separated (use Times New Roman font size 12). Important graphs and equations (in equation form, not screenshots of EViews or other software output) must be included within the report, and the corresponding EViews or other software output should be included in an appendix (the appendix is not included in the page count, and it will not be marked. It will be used only to check if the results included within the text are reported correctly). Any work cited must be properly referenced and any information that is quoted verbatim should be in quotation marks with a reference to the source. You do not need to include the textbook or lecture slides in your reference list.

Question (Asymmetric effects of monetary policy on future inflation) ëFamaís (1975) classic study on interest rates as predictors of ináation suggests that movements in interest rates primarily reáect áuctuations in expected ináation (the so-called Fisher e§ect1 ) rather than changes in real interest rates. Subsequent work supports this conclusion in the postwar United States except for the period [...] from October 1979 until October 1982. This evidence along with the evidence that the term structure contains information about future (nominal) interest rate movements suggests that the term structure might also contain information about the future path of ináation.

The objective is to evaluate empirically whether the term structure of interest rates2, used as a proxy for monetary policy, is related to future ináation and whether this relationship is symmetric. This assessment is especially important given that ináation is a major concern of policymakers. For this project, the Örst thing to do is to read the Örst 10 pages of Mishkinís article as well as Tkaczís article (posted on Moodle), in particular, to understand the purpose of the ìináation-change equationîand what can be learnt from it.

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