BUSA3015 - Business Forecasting Assessment - Macquarie University

Assignment Task

Description

The Case Study

You have been appointed as a consultant for the Australian Building Approvals company . Given the current economic condition in Australia has given your company an insight to perform forecasting on the value of building approvals in New South Wales (NSW).

As part of your role in the Business Analytics and Data Analytics team, you have been asked to forecast ‘ Value of Building Approvals, NSW’ , as part of a wider report being commissioned by the Australian Building Approvals . Your role requires you to follow the “Assessment Instructions” in the next page and complete report 2.

Skills in focus for this assessment

• Critical Thinking and Problem Solving
• Data, Information, and Digital Skills
• Discipline Knowledge - Business Analytics

Exercise 1 – Application

Once you perform this simple linear regression model, what are the following numerical values:

1. The value of the

2. The coefficient of

3. The value of R ² .

4. The standard error of the

5. The MSE of the

6. The p-value for the coefficient of

7. The t-stat for the coefficient of

8. The within-sample forecast for January

9. The out-of-sample forecast for July

10. The total observations in regression statistics

Exercise 2 – Application

Before you begin Exercise 2, let’s check that you have the right data! The average should be 3215360!

1. The value of the
2. The coefficient of
3. The value of R ² 
4. The standard error of the regression
5. The t-statistic for the coefficient of
6. The p value of the coefficient of
7. The within-sample forecast for June
8. The out-of-sample forecast for January
9. The Degrees of Freedom for residual from ANOVA
10. The F statistics in ANOVA table (not the F significance!).

Exercise 3

For the model in Exercise 2, given that you have the actual data for the out-of-sample period (you considered the within-sample period to end in January 2023 – but you do have data for February 2023 and onwards) – discuss your forecasting method, your forecasts, and the business insights from these, using the following steps:

• Attribution 
• Scope 
• Application
• Analysis
• Articulation of Issues 
• Critique
• Position 

Pointers

For each of these sub-headings below, at least consider the notes that follow (you can consider more!). If you use a generative artificial intelligence (AI) tool (such as ChatGPT or similar), without citing the source, you will be penalised for violating academic integrity. As we have around 350 students in the unit, you also run the risk of plagiarism against other students by using such tools.

If you wish, you may include screenshot/s of any such AI response, and then showcase your own response (in typed words) which exhibits your critical thinking where you have modified the AI response to display higher-level thinking skills in line with the unit’s learning outcomes.

Attribution – Consider the marking rubric.

Scope – Explain the model in Exercise 2 by using language that is understood by a non- technical audience.

Application - Describe and explain how you applied the data and your knowledge to perform the forecasts in the model in Exercise 2. Describe and explain using language that is understood by a technical audience.

Analysis - Consider the marking rubric, to assist you, you should include:

• A plot of the considered sample ( February 2014 to January 2023 ) and the forecasts (within and out-of-sample) on one chart.
• Provide a description of the chart and an analysis of your forecast is
• Provide another plot of the actual data that is beyond the considered sample ( February 2023 to January 2024 ) and the forecasts.
• A description of the chart and an analysis of your

Articulation of Issues - Consider the marking rubric, to assist you, you should: Perform the appropriate check/s and test/s – provide some of this evidence.

What are the issues based on your check/s and test/s above?

Note: we have discussed and conducted several check/s and test/s when we are forecasting in this unit - and it is up to you to determine which checks and tests are appropriate – to determine issues, if any.

Critique - Consider the marking rubric, to assist you, you should: Critically evaluate your model 2 on its own merits.

Critically evaluate the models in exercise 2 in report 2 with exercise 2 in report 1. Compare and contrast the models from both business forecasting & business intelligence points of view . Critically think and discuss any other considerations that need to be taken into account for your forecasts / forecasting to be useful.

Position – Consider the marking rubric, to assist you, you should consider:

Given all of the discussion above, as well as your discussion in Report 1 , state your position regarding your choice of model - from both a business forecasting and a business intelligence point of view.

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