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Assignment Task

1. Nemi Mehta is owning 50 Hectares of land near Junagadh. On his Farm, he cultivates Giloy, which is a medicinal plant in Ayurveda. The below-given table shows the sales of ‘Giloy Vati’ that his team is preparing as per one Ayurveda script (book), and the amount they spend on the Advertisement of it.

Nemi’s problem is to analyze the effect of Advertisement on sales. Firstly, He wants to understand the presence of a linear relationship between the sales and ‘amount spent in advertisement’. He also wants to run a correlation and regression to know whether he should keep spending money on Advertisements or not. If sales figures are not affected by advertisement, he should not spend money on it. So, take the EXCEL output of the following and write the interpretation.
- Appropriate type of Graph which can exhibit the linear relation b/w variables.
- Karl Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient
- Regression Analysis
- Graph that shows predicted v/s actual sales figures.

Region code           Sales (INR 000s)              Advertising (TV spots per month) (in INR, 000s)
1                                 260.3                                 5
2                                 286.1                                 7
3                                 279.4                                 6
4                                 410.8                                 9
5                                438.2                                 12
6                                315.3                                 8
7                                565.1                                 11
8                                570.0                                  16
9                                426.1                                 13
10                              315.0                                   7
11                              403.6                                  10
12                              220.5                                   4
13                              343.6                                   9
14                              644.6                                   17
15                              520.4                                   19
16                              329.5                                    9
17                              426.0                                   11
18                              343.2                                   8
19                              450.4                                  13
20                              421.8                                  14

2.a. The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall using Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available from 1997 to 2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the rainfall for the year 2017. To know, what extent the prediction is correct, actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4millimeters) is provided. Based on MSE and MAD, find out which alpha values among the three suggestions are relatively near to actual value?

SUBDIVISION YEAR ANNUAL (in MM)
Gujarat Region 1997 1068.9
Gujarat Region 1998 1070
Gujarat Region 1999 568.4
Gujarat Region 2000 550.6
Gujarat Region 2001 849
Gujarat Region 2002 637.2
Gujarat Region 2003 1160.3
Gujarat Region 2004 1005.8
Gujarat Region 2005 1316.4
Gujarat Region 2006 1478
Gujarat Region 2007 1178.9
Gujarat Region 2008 911.1
Gujarat Region 2009 641.6
Gujarat Region 2010 1088.7
Gujarat Region 2011 890.5
Gujarat Region 2012 714
Gujarat Region 2013 1118.6
Gujarat Region 2014 705.7
Gujarat Region 2015 622.9
Gujarat Region 2016 764.9

2.b. A new gas-electric hybrid car has recently hit the market. The distance traveled on 1 gallon of fuel is normally distributed with a mean of 65 miles and a standard deviation of 4 miles. Find the probability of the following events. (show the concerned region by z curve)

1. The car travels more than 70 miles per gallon.

2. The car travels less than 60 miles per gallon.

3. The car travels between 55 and 70 miles per gallon.

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