Highlights
The Best Estimate Loss Ratio Assumptions
You are assisting the Chief Actuary to set the Best Estimate Loss Ratio assumptions for two lines of business: Death and TPD. TPD is “Total and Permanent Disablement” benefit. A TPD claim is admitted when a policyholder is permanently unable ever to work.
Loss Ratio is defined as ‘Incurred Claim Cost divided by Earned Premium’.
Incurred Claim cost is defined as actual Claims Admitted plus an allowance for Claims Incurred but Not Reported (IBNR).
You were provided the amount of Earned Premium, Claims Incurred, and Number of Claims incurred from 2011 to 2020.
Task:
Prepare your recommendation to the Chief Actuary for the Best Estimate Loss Ratio assumptions.
The recommendation should be limited to two pages. It should include:
Recommended Best Estimate Loss Ratio assumptions, for Death and TPD separately.
A summary of how the above assumption is derived, including what data is used and any critical assumptions that you have made. This should include observations of the data used and potential data limitations.
Considerations and points that should be further investigated that may provide important additional data for determining the best estimate loss ratio.
Explain in your own word the concept of ‘Incurred but not Reported’ (IBNR) claims and why it needs to be allowed in the Loss Ratio assumption
Use charts and/or tables where applicable to demonstrate analysis results visually.
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