Climate Politics Declared an Increase of The Global Mean Temperature - Management Assignment Help

Assignment Task:

Task:

• In this worksheet, two different climate change scenarios are examined.
• In this worksheet, two different climate change scenarios are examined.

Comparison of climate change scenarios
Motivation
Climate politics declared an increase of the global mean temperature of more than 2 °C compared to the pre-industrial temperature as a ‘dangerous change in climate’ that, if possible, should be avoided. In the following, we will investigate at what point the two- degrees target for the global mean and for individual regions is exceeded in the scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. In addition, we will analyze the consequences of crossing this threshold for the sea level rise.
Model setup for the experiments
For the purpose of this exercise, choose the tool “compare two scenarios” (left side) on the page “Climate change scenarios”. You change select either “map” or “time series”.
Reference
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/emissions-scenarios/
 

Assignment Tasks
Task 1 (1 mark)
At what point in time is the two-degrees target exceeded in both scenarios? (1 mark)
a. RCP8.5: ……………………………
b. RCP2.6: ………………………….
The time series tab on top of the maps has to be opened to answer this question.
 

Task 2: (3 marks)
Run both scenarios until 2050 and 2095 and answer the questions in the table below. (300 words)
Exercise/ Scenario RCP8.5 RCP2.6
(1) Which regions display a warming of more than 2 °C until 2050 in the scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6? (2) What are the consequences of the observed warming for the sea level? Consider the consequences for the sea ice melt and the thermal expansion of the ocean. Read the additional information to answer this question! (3) How do both scenarios differ at the end of the 21st century and what are the consequences with regard to the sea level rise?
Task 3: (3 marks)
Compare the CO2-concentration of the scenarios displayed in the figures on the left side and answer the questions in the table below. (200 words)
Exercise/ Scenario RCP8.5 RCP2.6
(1) At what point is the respective maximum of the CO2-concentration met and how high is it? (2) At what point throughout the Earth’s history was the CO2-concentration similarly high as the maxima of the scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 in the 21st century and how warm was it at the respective time?
(See articles below!) Task 4: (1 mark) (100 words)
How likely do you think it is that humankind will meet the two-degrees target?
Helpful articles to work on the exercises:
Climate Engineering – an overview
Ocean fertilization – possibility to reduce CO2 technically (Carbon Dioxide Removal)
Stratospheric aerosol injection – possibility to modify the Earth’s radiation budget (Solar
Radiation Management)
Additional Information
Evaluate the impacts of the regional warming in both scenarios in the middle of the 21st century with regard to the sea level rise.
In the middle of the 21st century, according to RCP8.5, the continents as well as the polar regions show a strong warming, that significantly exceeds 2 °C. Especially ice-covered and subtropical regions are affected. The oceans show a warming of above 2 °C as well, except for the Tropical oceans.
 

• This is a problem in regard to the rising sea level: Especially ice-covered regions (Greenland and large parts of the Antarctica) face a strong warming, resulting in the melting of ice and consequently in a rising sea level. In addition, the atmosphere above the oceans heats up as well, leading to an expansion of the water masses and therefore to a rise of the sea level.
• According to RCP2.6, the warming is significantly lower. Only large parts in North America and Europe exceed a warming of 2 °C. The Antarctica and the oceans remain below this critical limit. Consequently, the sea level would rise only slightly, for example due to the ice melt in Greenland and a comparably low expansion of the sea water.
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• Assess the situation at the end of the 21st century in both scenarios
• The difference between both scenarios increased significantly. The mean global warming according to RCP8.5 is three times larger compared to the low scenario and amounts to almost 5 °C. Except for the Tropical regions, all continents now face a warming of above 5 °C – including Greenland and parts of the Antarctica. Over the oceans, the warming amounts to at least 3 °C in the Tropics, in the remaining regions to more than 4 °C. Owing to the ice melt and the expansion of the seawater, the sea level would rise strongly of about 1 m according to ice models. Since the ice sheets in Greenland and in the Antarctica only melt slowly, the sea level rise would continue over the next centuries and even millenia, even if the warming is lowered.
• According to RCP2.6, global warming at the end of the century is a bit lower compared to 2050. Only above northern North America, Greenland, and north-eastern Eurasia, the warming exceeds 2 °C. Above large parts of the oceans, the increase in temperature amounts to less than 1,5 °C. Still, the increase of temperature results in a rise of the sea level of about 40 cm which is approximately double the sea level rise of the last 100 years.
• Climate historical context
• In the course of the Earth’s history, the atmospheric CO2-concentration last amounted to 1000 ppm 50 Mio years back, the value, that according to RCP8.5 will be met at the end of the 21st century. At that time, the Earth was 8 – 10 °C warmer than today and ice-free. According to what we know today, an increase of 280 ppm (before the industrialization) to 1000 ppm in 300 years only has never occurred in climate history before.
• According to RCP2.6, the CO2-concentration would amount to approximately 450 ppm in the middle of the century. This too is an extraordinary high value, that has not occurred throughout the entire Ice Age (i.e. the last 2.5 Mio. years). In the Mid-Pliocene, around 3 Mio. years ago, the mean global temperature was 2 – 3 °C higher than today.

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