Highlights
Task:
Question 1 (30 marks)
In sheet 1 (time_series) of the attached spreadsheet, data on prices of commodities (USD) which include oil, gold, silver and platinum are provided. The sheet also contains the exchange rate (USD/AUD) data over the period 1880-2018. The data are in annual frequency. Use data from sheet 1 of the attached sheet.
a) Compute the descriptive statistics for each series using the Excel built-in function(s) (do not compute MAD). (5 marks)
b) Create a time series plot for oil price and comment on the trend. Your chart should include a chart heading and axis titles. (5 marks)
c) Create a histogram of oil price and comment on the shape of the distribution (5 marks).
Please use ‘bins’ (categories) of length 20 when creating the histogram. That is, the bins should have categories of 0 under 20, 20 under 40, etc up to 120 under 140 (7 different categories / ranges in total). Your chart should include a chart heading and axis titles. (5 marks)
d) Estimate the probability of having an oil price lower than $40 (i.e values in the provided spreadsheet lower than $40). Compute this by estimating the proportion of the observations where oil prices is less than $40. (2.5 marks)
e) If it is assumed that the prices of oil follow a normal distribution. Compute the proportion of prices that will be more than $50. (2.5 marks)
f) Construct a 99% confidence interval for silver prices (5 marks)
g) Compute the correlation of all series using the Excel built-in function and provide a comment (5 marks)
Question 2 (35 marks)
Use data from sheet 1 of the attached sheet.
a) Produce scatter plot of the oil price and gold price (5). Your chart should include a chart heading and axis titles. (5 marks)
b) Jane is interested in investing in gold, but she has examined your results in questions 1g and 2a, and she is not convinced about the correlation of these variables. Provide an adequate test to convince her of the significance of the observed relationship between oil and gold prices. (5 marks)
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