CVEN9612 - Bias Correction Rainfall Downscaling Rainfall-runoff Modelling and Reservoir Storage Estimation

Assignment Task

Informations

You are given 40 years of daily rainfall, flow and atmospheric variables for a study catchment. Daily rainfall is available at five locations over the catchment while daily values of the selected atmospheric variables, identified as significant for driving rainfall over the study area, are available for current and future time periods from a carefully chosen General Circulation Model (GCM). Aim is to first bias correct the time series of atmospheric variables, use it as an input to a daily rainfall downscaling model to get the rainfall projections for a future climate, and feed the rainfall projections to a pre-calibrated daily rainfall-runoff model and simulate flows. The final part relates to the analysis of changes in the flow behaviour given assumed demand and a reservoir storage capacity.

Task

1. Present a brief summary of the changes in the rainfall behaviour in the future including changes in averages extremes and wet and dry spells.

2. Assess the change in the empirical flood frequency distribution between the current and future period simulations. Comment on how much this change is a function of changes in rainfall extremes, compared to evaporation change.

3. From the flow simulations, estimate a Storage vs. Probability of failure relationship for the dam monthly inflows and water demand data using historical and modelled flows. The release policy to be used in this question is to release fully the demanded water if it is available in storage. Monthly water demand is assumed to remain same in current and future time periods. You may need to set up the reservoir simulation model for this task in Excel or a similar environment.

4. State clearly the assumptions behind the analysis and comments on any limitations of the methods being adopted for use in this assignment.

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