EA2006-5016 - Trend Analysis of Rainfall Data - Rainfall Data Analysis - Data Analytics Assignment Help

Assignment Task

AIMS
The aims of this part of homework exercise is to get you started with:
a) Downloading data from the internet
b) Rainfall data analysis for two hydrological applications; trend analysis and drought analysis.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/ holds many scientific data and reports about the Australian Climate and water resources. It is a good entry point to get meteorological data across a region for most environmental, geosciences and biological studies. We will use the BOM website as a source of rainfall data for the purposes of this practical.

TASK A: Trend analysis of rainfall data
Why is trend analysis important? Someone may come up to you and say ‘hey, I think droughts and floods are becoming more frequent’. You then ask yourself as a qualified hydrologist if that is really true or is it a case where the perception of increasing frequency of droughts/floods is true because of increased media coverage? We can answer this question using trend analysis and the exercise below gives you a beginner’s start into trend analysis. The moving average (or running mean) graph is a simple to start trend analysis. A moving average graph removes the scatter in the dataset revealing any underlying trends. The most common approach is to use a window of 2k + 1 observations, k to the left and k to the right of each observation. The moving average curve may reveal an upward, downward, or perhaps no trend at all.

Questions for students to answer and submit:
Read the information given on the first page of the assignment and answer the following questions.

Question A.1: Is it better to use a 10 year of 11 year moving average? Explain your answer.

Question A.2: Choose Rainfall Anomaly and an 11-year running average for the entire dataset for the Cairns Aero station. Describe the trends you see on the graph plotted on the website.

TASK B: Rainfall analysis for droughts
Prolonged and recurring drought result in desertification, soil degradation and ecological damage. Drought is common in Australia and the Murray Darling Basin (MDR basin) is no exception. This basin is one of the most important catchments in Australia given its size and economic importance. Past droughts in the MDR basin were recorded in 1809-1814 (Great Drought), 1895-1903 (Federation Drought), 1935-1945 (Second War Drought) and more recently, 1997-2009 (Big Dry). The Millennium Drought occurred during this period between 2001 and 2009 and was a period of longest uninterrupted below-average rainfall in SE Australia since 1900. It ended in 2010 when a strong La Ninã occurred resulting in widespread flooding. Part or all of this basin has been in drought conditions for 88 years of the 221 years since European settlement in 1788, although it is likely that droughts also occurred frequently prior to European settlement (see Helman, 2009).

Questions for students to answer and submit:

Question B.1: Calculate the long-term annual mean for the MDR Basin.

Question B.2:
For the years between 1996 and 2008, calculate the deviation from the long term annual mean (i.e. calculated for Question B.1) for each year. For example if your long-term annual mean is 300 mm, and in 1996 the rainfall was 430 mm; then the deviation in 1996 is 430-300 = 130 mm. Place these results in a table.

                Deviation from the long-term annual mean (mm)

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

B2a. When did the maximum negative deviation from the long-term annual mean occur?

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