Highlights
Part A:
Use the data ECON1095 Data Sem 1 2021 to complete the questions in Part A (available on Canvas).
QUESTION 1
In the Excel file ECON1095 Data Sem 1 2021 you will find monthly data from 1990 to 2021 on several international share price indices.
(a) Using the entire sample graph the US and Hong Kong indices both as levels and continuous returns.
(b) Use Excel’s Data Analysis to find the Descriptive Statistics for the continuous returns (log returns) for both the US and Hong Kong share markets.
(c) What are some of the major international events that affected these two markets over this time? Referring to these events and using your graphs in part (a) and the descriptive statistics from part (b), compare and contrast the performance of these two share markets over this period.
QUESTION 2
Again, using the Excel file ECON1095 Data Sem 1 2021 and the complete sample:
(a) Calculate the continuous returns for each of the International share price indices and then find the average continuous returns for each for the whole period.
(b) Which market has the highest and which has the lowest average returns?
(c) Calculate the standard deviations for the continuous returns for the international share price indices for the entire period. Which market is the riskiest?
(d) Graph the highest returning market against the Australian market for the entire period, then on a separate graph do the same for the lowest returning market, then on a third graph do this for the riskiest market
QUESTION 3
Although Hong Kong market had experienced large extend of uncertainty, often such things can also provide opportunities for investors. As a first step, an investor considering the Hong Kong share market, examines the long term continuous returns for the Hang Seng. Use Excel’s Data Analysis/Descriptive Statistics to find the Hang Seng monthly returns from start of 1991 until March 2021.
(a) Calculate the 95% confidence interval for the monthly returns for the Hang Seng over this period.
(b) As the investor is concerned about the possibility of negative returns, test to see whether the average monthly returns for the Hang Seng are less than or equal to zero.
test, briefly discuss whether the investor should be worried about the possibility of negative returns if they invest in the Hong Kong share market. Discuss type 1 and type 2 error and how they may relate to this hypothesis test.
(c) Test to see whether the monthly returns on the Hang Seng over this period are normally distributed using the Jarque-Bera test. This should be done in Excel, by calculating the Jarque-Bera statistic using the formulas from the notes and Data Analysis/Descriptive Statistics.2 Using the results of this test, comment on the accuracy of the probabilities calculated in parts (a) and (b) of this question.
(d) Calculate and comment the skewness of the Hang Seng monthly returns over the sample period. Explain why this is the case and the implications for investment decisions.
(e) Using the continuous returns on the Hang Seng, determine whether the rises and falls are independent using a runs test. What are the implications of your findings?
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