ECON3061: The Australian Real House Price Index - Economics Assignment Help

Assignment Task:

Task:

Download the file which has been assigned to you on iLearn. It contains data on the Australian real house price index.

1 Your task is to provide forecasts for this variable for each of the last 4 quarters of the sample period. Note that if you do not use the data file assigned to you, you will get a mark of zero for the assignment.

As in-sample (estimation) period you should use the data given to you not including the last 4 quarters. The last 4 quarters of observations are to be used for ex-post forecasting only. You must write and submit a brief report on the production of your forecasts. Your report should clearly explain why you chose the forecasting technique that you used, and how you chose your specific model (e.g. how you made decisions about things like parameter values, model orders, etc.). It should contain sufficient details about the calculation of your forecasts for the marker to be able to understand what you have done, and how you have done it. You should also include an assessment of the forecasting model that provides an indication of the probable accuracy of the forecasts. Of course, your report should also include your forecasts.

Your submitted assignment must include a plot of the data, and any other plots, figures or tables that you feel are necessary. Bear in mind that your objective is to convince the marker that the judgements you have made in the production of your forecasts are sound and that your forecasts are likely to be the most accurate that you could reasonably be expected to produce. The quality of your argument matters as much as the precise value of your forecasts, as such pay equal attention to both aspects of your answers.

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