Factors Affecting Crime - Beer Production Forecasting - Business Assignment Help

Assignment Task:

Business Statistics Instructions 

This assignment is a test of your ability to manipulate and present data and of your understanding of calculating and presenting concepts in statistics. 

This assignment contributes 50% to your overall module mark. 

The assignment asks you to address two different scenarios and produce a complete statistical analysis for each one. Each scenario is worth 50% of the assignment grade. 

• All answers should be presented in a clearly legible report, whether handwritten, or word processed. All work must be uploaded on Turnitin.

• Submitted reports must have your name and student ID number on the first page 

• Font: Times new roman. 

• Font size: 12. 

• Single and a half (1.5) space. 

• Align text to both the left and right margins(justify).

 • Number the pages 

• Marks will be awarded for the content, clarity, style, focus, creativity, originality

 • Plagiarism and collusion; all sources must be referenced using the Harvard system, direct quotation should be avoided.

Scenario A: Factors affecting Crime 

You are part of the state’s task force tasked with determining the factors that drive crime rates. Your team has already collected appropriate data from 51 different states. The variables are state id (sid), state name (state), violent crimes per 100,000 people (crime), murders per 1,000,000 (murder), the percent of the population living in metropolitan areas (pctmetro), the percent of the population that is white (pctwhite), percent of population with a high school education or above (pcths), percent of population living under poverty line (poverty), and percent of population that are single parents (single). It has 51 observations. 

You are required to present (for all variables): 

Descriptive Statistics: 

1. Summary statistics (descriptive statistics) (3 marks)

2. Grouped frequency distributions (2 marks) 

3. Histograms (identify modal class), ogives, and boxplots (5 marks) 

4. A discussion of your findings (10 marks)

Correlation and Regression Analysis: 

1. Scatter plots (2 marks) 

2. Correlation analysis (calculate the coefficient and significance testing) (2 marks) 

3. Coefficient of determination (1 mark) 

4. Regression analysis (calculate all relevant ????????????) (5 marks) 

5. Significance testing (2 marks) 

6. Confidence intervals for the population parameters (????????????) (3 marks) 

7. A discussion of your findings (15 marks) 

Scenario B: Beer production forecasting 

You are part of the operations manager’s team tasked to forecast the megaliters of beer needed for the next two quarters. To do that, your team has collected quarterly data (every 3 months) from 1956 to 2008. There are 218 observations of the total quarterly beer produced the last 54 years (assume this is year 2010). 

Descriptive Statistics (e.g. per quarter, per year): 

1. Summary statistics (descriptive statistics) (3 marks) 

2. Grouped frequency distributions (only one needed) (2 marks) 

3. Histograms, time series plots, etc. (5 marks) 

4. A discussion of your findings (10 marks) 

Forecasting Analysis: 

1. Moving Average Model (5 marks)

2. Centered Moving Average Model (5 marks) 

3. Autoregressive Model (calculate all relevant ????????????) (5 marks) 

4. A discussion of your findings (15 marks) 

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