IAFF1005 - Introduction To International Affairs Policy Memo Assignment

Assignment Task

Questions

Context

1. In 2015, the United States and Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In the agreement, Iran agreed to limits on its nuclear program in exchange for relief from U.S. economic sanctions. In May 2018, however, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions on Iran that had been suspended under the agreement. The Trump administration subsequently levied crippling sanctions on Iran’s oil industry that reduced its oil exports nearly 90 percent. Although the JCPOA technically remains in effect since the other signatories—Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, and the EU—have not renounced it, during the summer of 2019 Iran exceeded limits established in the JCPOA on how much low enriched uranium (LEU) it could possess and its level of purity. The IAEA reported in November 2020 that Iran has now stockpiled enough LEU to build two nuclear bombs in a few months were the country to continue enriching it.

Scenario

1. The Biden administration is considering opening indirect talks with Tehran on rejoining the agreement. As a high-ranking career foreign service officer with expertise in nonproliferation policy and the Middle East, you are asked to advise the U.S. delegation. Specifically, you are asked to address the following questions: Should the United States return to the JCPOA? If so, under what conditions? If not, what policy should the United States pursue instead?

2. Shortly after entering office, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the TransPacific Partnership (a free trade agreement involving countries on both sides of the Pacific), renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and slapped tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports. As of September 2019, tariffs of 10-25 percent had been applied to two-thirds of Chinese goods entering the United States. In retaliation, China enacted tariffs on $185 billion of U.S. exports to China, covering nearly 60 percent of China’s imports from the United States. In January 2020, the two countries signed a “Phase One” trade agreement in which China agreed to substantially increase its imports of American-made products, but actual Chinese purchases are lagging well behind the promised levels.

3. The Biden administration has not yet decided what to do about the tariffs enacted by the previous administration. As a staff economist at the Council of Economic Advisers, you are tasked with drafting a memo to advise the president on U.S. trade policy with China. Specifically, the new administration is interested in the following question: Should the United States fully or partially rescind the “Trump tariffs?” If so, under what conditions?

4. If you have questions about any of the above, please contact your TA or Prof. Downes, who will attempt to respond to your queries in a timely manner. Please note, however, that the teaching staff is able to answer clarification questions only, akin to the type you would ask on an in-class exam. The writing consultant, Ms. McAuliffe, may review drafts to assist with writing quality but not with substance.

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