IMF World Economic Outlook - Differ from the Forecasts for the Comparator Countries - Report Writing Assignment Help

Assignment Task :

Assignment 1
1. You need the content of weeks 6-10 for parts 4-6 of this assignment. If you start the final write-up on May 27, having watched my teaching videos and read the study materials, you have another 16 days until the close at 23:59 on June 11. This task is marked out of 50, so  you should aim at more than the 1200 words of the first assignment, so please try not to go more than 10 percent over the norm of 2000 words for parts 2-5 plus 3 pages (including a few simple graphics) for the final summary part. 

2. I shall continue our discussions of the first assignment in the small zoom meetings that started last week. My feedback should help, especially since for almost all of you, you may continue with the country from the first assignment. I call it “your country”, not meaning your home country but the second country from the first assignment. The exception is for those who had Panama, since that country is dollarized and thus does not have a monetary or an exchange rate policy. Randheer please do the task for Mexico, Nadia work on Paraguay, Jag Poh on Bolivia, and Meyshna on Honduras. Please write to me if you did Panama and are not mentioned here.

3. The assignment asks you to analyse the early consequences of Covid 19 for the country that corresponds to the final two digits of your student ID (but not Panama!). This first task can be done without waiting for the lectures and study materials in weeks 7-10. Go to the website for IMF World Economic Outlook and you see that two Outlooks are published each year, in April and in October. Check the forecast for gdp growth in 2020 from this April for the country. Now assume that in April 2020 we knew enough about 2019 to have a good estimate for that immediate past year. The IMF made a forecast for 2019 in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook. Calculate the absolute (that is without any minus sign) error in that forecast, assuming that the result for 2019 published this April is correct. 

Go back five years and calculate the mean absolute forecast error in the estimates, each time comparing the forecast from the October before the forecast year and the outcome in the April after the forecast year. Also see if the forecast errors show a pattern that looks like the forecast errors in (you choose the one you think could be most relevant): (1) the growth of the US economy , (2) the growth of China (if the country is in Asia/Pacific) or (3) to the growth in Germany (the largest member of the EU). 

4. This and the next parts require study of weeks 7-10. Please read three pieces which are already on Moodle for week 9: one from the FT, one by Barro and one by Cochrane. Copy by hand the relevant graph from the three graphs in the FT article (LH side) and compare the growth rate for the average to the growth rate of gdp per capita (constant prices) of your country. Then discuss any differences (maybe there are none!). If your country is (nearly) always doing better or worse, discuss that using materials form the first assignment if you 
like. If there are specific years where your country does worse, see if you can find causes. Look at the history of the country and check for something special about inflation, interest rates, the budget deficit, the national debt or the exchange rate of your country. We will understand when marking that it may be much easier to find interesting patterns and explanations for some countries than for other countries.  

5. Now look at the graph on the RHS of the FT article. Make a similar bar graph for the period 2012 – 2021 for your country, using the estimates from the IMF’s April 2020 WEO.

a) Reading the interviews, you can probably relate most easily to the interview from Bangkok. Discuss whether in your country the capital city and the tourist industry will also be hurt in a big way.  

b) Check the WEO for three countries in the same region (or otherwise similar) and in your judgement somewhat comparable to your country. Note how the forecasts for your country for 2020 and 2021 differ from the forecasts for the comparator countries. 

Word count: 2000 plus or minus 10 percent up to here. Executive summary extra.

6. Write a 3-page report in non-technical language on your country and the pandemic, using a style that is attractive to managers without training in macroeconomics. Include two or three graphics that can be read easily by busy managers. 

You must explain and include the terms “demand shock” and “supply shock”, taking some clues from the pieces by Barro and Cochrane. 
For this final section, begin with briefly discussing whether your country did well (convergence and so on, average growth, other issues from the first assignment) over the past decade and then analyse the extent to which your country is hurt by Covid-19. Where that is insightful you can briefly refer to the three comparator countries, but the focus must remain on your country. 

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This  Report Writing Assignment  has been solved by our  Report Writing Experts at My Uni Paper. Our Assignment Writing Experts are efficient to provide a fresh solution to this question. We are serving more than 10000+ Students in Australia, UK & US by helping them to score HD in their academics. Our Experts are well trained to follow all marking rubrics & referencing style.

Be it a used or new solution, the quality of the work submitted by our assignment experts remains unhampered. You may continue to expect the same or even better quality with the used and new assignment solution files respectively. There’s one thing to be noticed that you could choose one between the two and acquire an HD either way. You could choose a new assignment solution file to get yourself an exclusive, plagiarism (with free Turnitin file), expert quality assignment or order an old solution file that was considered worthy of the highest distinction.