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Information Technology - EU Referendum Case Study - Report Writing Assessment Answer
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EU Referendum Case Study Assessment Answer
Assignment Task: Case: Estimating Constituency-Level Results from the EU Referendum [25 points] In the 2016 UK referendum on leaving the EU, the results of the vote were not released for individual electoral constituencies. However, many scholars would like to know why people voted to leave the EU, and how support for leaving differed across constituencies. One previous study has already estimated constituency-level support for ‘leave’ in an authoritative way. Your tasks in this question are (i) to produce estimates of the percentage of voters that voted ‘leave’ in every constituency using multilevel modeling and post-stratification that are as close as possible to this existing set of estimates, as measured by the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and (ii) to use your results to explain why people voted to leave. You need to:- Estimate an appropriate logistic multilevel model explaining voting for leave, using the predictors in the dataset.1
- Present the multilevel model results and interpret how the variables affect voting to leave the EU (Note: you do not need to discuss statistical significance).
- Produce post-stratified estimates of the percentage of people who voted ‘leave’ in all 631 constituencies in England, Scotland, and Wales
- Compare your results to the existing estimates using the Mean Absolute Error
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