Highlights
1. Overview
Although our economy has managed the 2007/08 global financial crisis (GFC), many economists predict that the current pandemic (COVID-19) could cause a recession in Australia. It has already caused upheaval in many sectors of the Australian economy, including disrupted supply chains and the unusual consumer behaviours (yes, I am talking about the toilet papers!). In response, the Australian government is taking aggressive measures to try to contain the economic damage.
Consider yourselves as policy advisors to the government and provide advice based on the skills and expertise acquired in this course so far. As an expert’s role in the government decision-making process, your task has the following two objectives:
Analysis: Experts are responsible for analysing the economic scenario (eg, depicting the likely impact of the policy on the economy) using the specialised knowledge and the technical expertise in the discipline.
Part A: Diagnostics analysis of macroeconomic indicators
Task: It is useful to look at the main macroeconomic indicators of the past economic recession to assess the macroeconomic impacts of the current pandemic on the economy. In this part of the report, you apply knowledge about the macroeconomics data and present a diagnostic analysis of the economy.
Required steps: You must complete the following steps in given order to complete Part A.
1. Using macroeconomics data (in the excel file) provided for the Australian economy, choose only one indicator per sheet which you think the most relevant to examine a recession3 (ie, you can see three separate excel sheets labelled as ‘GDP’ ‘CPI’ and ‘Labour market’). In total, you will be selecting three indicators. GDP; Choose only ONE indicator and generate ONE excel chart from the early 1980s to the most recent period provided CPI and Wage; Choose only ONE indicator and generate ONE excel chart from the early 1980s to the most recent period provided Labour market; Choose only ONE indicator and generate ONE excel chart the early 1980s to the most recent period provided
2. Justify your selection of the indicator (ie, explain why you have chosen the particular indicator to analyse the economic recession). Discuss the strength and weakness if any.
3. Identify and explain the economic recession period (if any) for each indicator by referring to the chart that you have created. How severe was the recession and how long lasted?
4. You have noticed that the data points in the attached file finish on December 2019 before the outbreak of coronavirus. Now you need to make predictions about how the current pandemic crisis affects the Australian economy beyond that point; What sectors are hit harder? How severe is the damage? And how long the economic downturn will last? For this part, you do not need to create any chart. But your discussion needs to be related to your charts or information contained in the excel file. For the time being, we simply ignore the impacts of the current economic stimulus package announced by the government
Part B: Policy brief
Task: In this part of the report, you are asked to provide an economic analysis of economic policies to combat with economic impacts of COVID-19 in the form of the policy brief. Policy briefs aim to be practical and well-researched to make it useful and worthwhile for your clientele.
A policy brief is quite different from essay or report writing. Emphasis is placed on the clarity and succinctness of the brief, which is essential in persuading the target audience of your key message. Policy briefs aim to be practical and well-researched to make timely evidence-based recommendations.
The purpose of this policy brief is to communicate your diagnostic in Part A and the analytical discussions in Part B by making the best policy recommendation to the decision-maker. You need to provide enough information for the decision-maker to understand your recommendations and to reach a decision on the matter at hand. However, senior government officials and corporate executives only have limited time, so you must be brief and straight to the point.
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