MGT580: Forecasting and Risk Assessment - Overview of Risk - Modelling Risk - Managing Risk - Management Assignment Help

Assignment Task:

Assessment item 1: Overview of risk:

TASK:

In order to complete the three assignments in this subject, you will need to select a significant problem from your workplace. This will become known as your 'work case problem' and will form a critical framework for reconstructing risk theory and relating the risk theory to a real-world situation. You will be asked to refer to this work case problem again in assignments two and three as you continue to learn and build a more complete picture of risk in a working environment.
 
Theory:
 
Answer all of the following:
 
• Compare and contrast a minimum of three different definitions of risk. Draw some conclusions about the meaning of risk by proposing your own definition of 'risk'. 
• Analyse how business risk differs from risk in general. Evaluate the components of business risk. Using various academic/theoretical viewpoints argue and justify a case for (or against) any one individual risk component having a higher priority over other risk components. 
• Explain decision making heuristics, bias and risk preference. Assess and evaluate how the existence of decision-making heuristics, bias and risk preference impacts the analysis and management of risk for decision-makers.
 
Application to the workplace:

Using your chosen work case problem, answer the following:
 
• Briefly outline your chosen work case problem and any relevant background. 
• Examine the three decision-making heuristics to determine how each of the three heuristics could apply to your work case problem. Use appropriate examples to justify your claims. 
• Looking at the 13 decision-making biases, determine which three biases which could apply to your work case problem. Explain how these would work and use appropriate examples to justify your claims. 
• Apply the risk management process to your chosen work case problem and assess the risk implications your chosen work case problem present to the workplace case company. Appraise your solution by reflecting on any reservations you may have had about this process. For example, were there any shortfalls in the process you have undertaken? 

Communication and Referencing skills:

• Presentation of the work including structure, format, grammar and images. 
• The correct application of APA 6th referencing.

Assessment item 2: Modelling risk:

TASK:
 
Theory:

Please evaluate the following question. Your evaluation requires you to prepare and defend a chosen position: 
'Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?'
 
Workplace application:

Identify how your work case problem would benefit if more reliable quantitative analysis and forecasts were available. (Ideally, you should use the same work case problem from the first assignment, but if it does not lend itself well to this assignment you may choose another problem from your workplace).
 
Your research requires you to:
1. Collect as much relevant data about the work case problem as possible. Analyse the data using descriptive statistics (measures of probability, frequency and central tendencies such as mean, mode, median and standard deviation) and then plot the data in appropriate graphical forms.
2. Assess the diagrams by determining the key characteristics of the data - i.e. summarise the patterns and skewness to interpret what these patterns likely indicate about the data to date
3. Use one quantitative modelling forecasting techniques to develop forecasts from the data
4. for example naive, moving average, exponential smoothing and/or regression
5. Explain your key findings from the quantitative analysis. In doing so, apply the predictions to your work case problem and determine what the consequences would be for your workplace. - Under what circumstances are qualitative modelling techniques suitable for forecasting? Explain how qualitative techniques could be applied to your chosen work case problem to improve future outcomes.
 
Communication & Referencing skills: 

• Presentation of the work including structure, format, grammar and images 
• The application of APA referencing 

Assessment item 3: Managing risk:

TASK:

Part 1: Theory

Consider the following statement: 
'Risk managers should mainly focus on the consequences of an event rather than its likelihood as these consequences determine the impact on the business.'

You need to:

1. Examine the interaction between likelihood and consequences and develop an argument either for or against the statement;
2. Your commentary should contain a critical argument with a brief introduction, stating where you stand and how you argue your case and then finish with a conclusion. 3. Include an analysis of the role of a business risk manager offer some conclusions as to how prominent the role of the business risk manager should be within the wider management of the business, i.e. when compared with other management functions such as strategy, governance, product development, marketing, finance, operations, etc.
4. With the support of academic literature, justify how you reached your conclusions.

Part 2 Workplace Application:
 
Part 1:
Compare and contrast the risk mitigation strategies of retaining, transfer or avoid risk. Your discussion should include the key considerations a risk manager should take into account when making such decisions (e.g. cost versus benefit framework). Use your chosen work case problem to generate a working example for each of the three strategies. Recommend the strongest strategy for your chosen work case problem and justify your decision.

Part 2:
Technology is rapidly changing and improving how we can profile risk. Increasingly this is allowing more sophisticated modelling of risk. The Bowtie approach is set to replace some older methods. This means increasingly software applications such as BowtieXP are becoming available to expedite this process. Hence, your boss has asked you to trial the program and give a report on the program in which you offer a recommendation to go ahead and implement the program:

Your brief is to:

1. Download the Bowtie XP program, enter all your current data and attempt to produce a series of reports in order to examine the software features;

2. Write up a report to your boss detailing the:
a. Theoretical foundations of the program;
b. Discuss the features and benefits of the software (insert relevant Bowtie reports and then discuss them individually);
c. A final recommendation stating whether your company should implement the program.
 
Part 3: Reflection:
Provide a reflective summary of your own perception of risk and how your understanding of risk, risk analysis, and risk management has developed over the session. Identify what you consider to be the three critical components of risk and risk management.

Communication & Referencing Skills:

• Presentation of the work including structure, format, grammar and images. 
• The application of APA referencing 

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