Moving Averages, and Exponential Smoothing Time-series Models - Economics Assignment Help

Assignment Task

Understand and know when to use various types of forecasting models.

• Compute a variety of forecasting error measures.
• forecast value and actual value
• gap between both values are smaller then the better of the forecasting
• Compute moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing time-series models.
• Decompose time-series data (daily share price) to identify and analyze trends (uptrend and down trend) and seasonality (Durian sales in June to Sept).
• Identify variables and use them in causal simple and multiple linear regression models. (Relationship between X and Y)
• Use Excel to analyze a variety of forecasting models

Consider instances in business decision making that forecasts will be required.

• Investment decisions (eg. What are the factors that will cause the share price drop?)
• Product portfolio decisions (eg. What are the factors that will cause the sales drop?)
• Staff recruitment decisions (eg. What are the factors that will cause the resignation of staff increase?)
   

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