Obtain the ABS statistics for Retail Trade - Management Assignment Help

Assignment Task:

Task:

BUSINESS FORECASTING

You have been employed as a consultant for a joint project by the Restaurant and Catering Industry Association of Australia and the Australian Government Treasury.

As part of your role in the Business Analytics and Data Analytics team, you have been asked to forecast turnover for cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services, as part of a wider report being commissioned by the above collaboration – on Australia’s hospitality industry.

Questions

•  Obtain the ABS statistics for Retail Trade - 8501.0 – available at: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale- trade/retail-tradeaustralia/latest-release#data-download  Download Table 1.
•  For the purposes of this report you are to consider the Cafes, Restaurants, and Takeaway Food Services data. There are three series in Table 1: Original, Seasonally-adjusted, and Trend (please choose carefully throughout this report!)
•  For the purposes of this report, only consider the data from March 2011 to February 2020 as the sample of data that is available to you – that is, ignore any recent observations.
•  This means that the first actual observation in your Excel file is from March 2011 and your last actual observation in your Excel file is from February 2020.
•  Use Excel and no other statistical software for the purposes of this report.
•  You may use Minitab for constructing correlograms.

Numerical responses to be submitted via a quiz tool on iLearn:

Exercise 1 – Application (10 marks)
For the purposes of this report, only consider the data from March 2011 to February 2020 as the sample of data that is available to you – that is, ignore any recent observations.
This means that the first actual observation in your Excel file is from March 2011 and your last actual observation in your Excel file is from February 2020.

For the Seasonally-adjusted data for Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaway Food (Series ID: A3348639K) available in Table 1: Forecast the out-of-sample values for every month in the period March 2020 – February 2021 (both months inclusive) using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing with the following parameters: alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.2. For the seed of the level use the first observation, Y1. For the seed of the trend – take the difference of the first two observations (Y2 – Y1).

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