POLM083 - Data Analysis Multiple & Regression Model Trump Feeling, Clinton Feeling Thermometer & Difference Trump/Clinton Feeling Thermometers - Data Analysis Assignment Help

Assignment Task -                 
 

Questions 

1. Formulate hypotheses for both wealth variables and justify them. Please introduce the research question to the reader. 

2. Regress life satisfaction on the Gini coefficient and GDP capita (live satisfaction is the dependent variable) and present your results in a publican-style regression table. Also run two bivariate models for each of your independent variables. 

3. Compare your, multiple regression model, to the results from bivariate models. Discuss model fit. 4. Interpret your multiple regression model in statistical and substantive terms. 

5. Construct confidence intervals around the estimates of the coefficient for the Gini Coefficient and the coefficient for GDP/capita and interpret them. 

6. Bonus: Re-examine the scatter plots, and address non-linearities. Please try running a fourth model using the tools you have learned to address non-linearity.

Theoretical Background 

Racial priming theory suggests that racial messages work as long as they are implicit and thereby do not violate norms of equality. Overtly racist messages are rejected because they do violate prevailing norms. Therefore, racial messages are effective if they use code, e.g., by replacing black with inner-cities or showing images that are suggestive rather than definite. According to racial priming theory, such implicit messages can be countered by calling out the messenger. Support for the user of such messages decreases across the board. Furthermore, the effect should be stronger among racially conservative voters than among racially liberal voters because: “it is highly resentful people who are most likely to face strong social censure if they speak their minds since their views are the ones most often subject to the charge of racism. They are the ones who suffer the most severe reaction should they express their views fully.”1 

Motivated reasoning theory suggests that people are driven to draw a particular conclusion in defense of their political attitudes, beliefs, and identities. One example of people’s motivation is the attempt to maintain a positive image of someone they like. In the specific Trump example, racially conservative whites will resist the racialized counter-strategy because they are unwilling to accept negative Informa on about a candidate that they are predisposed to like. For instance, when white racial conservatives are presented with an argument that the death penalty is unfair to blacks, this information does not lead them to be less supportive of the policy. Instead, they scrutinize the argument and increase their support for the policy.

.1 Survey Data Analysis 

You can download the dataset (‘surveydata.csv’) and the corresponding codebook (‘survey data code book.pdf’) for this task on QM+. You have to then load the dataset into R. 

The data comes from a survey that was carried out with 1,011 white respondents. It was carried out in two waves (you do not need to worry about this)—in the first wave respondents’ were measured with respect to their racial views. In the second wave, a survey experiment was carried out. The survey focuses on the 2016 presidential election. Hillary Clinton attempted to maintain Barack Obama’s multiracial coalition and Donald Trump was outspoken against undocumented immigrants, Muslims, and crime in the “inner cities.” Previous research indicates that racially resentful whites strongly supported Trump, whereas racial liberals strongly opposed Trump. 

The experimental manipulation in the survey uses an online news article designed to resemble a real Washington Post news story. The article describes Trump’s new TV ad on crime. All participants are asked to read the article and watch the accompanying campaign ad. The ad includes implicit racial appeals without directly referencing race. In a voice-over, Trump states “we have to have law and order. Hundreds of killings in Baltimore. Hundreds of killings in Chicago, and New York is not doing so great in terms of that front, and so many other cities,” while an image of young black men rioting in the streets appears on the screen.

Your task is to estimate three regression models and communicate your overall findings with respect to the general research questions—do you find support for the racial priming theory, the motivated reasoning theory, or none, and is it advisable to employ a racialized counterstrategy against Trump? In the three regression models, use the following dependent variables (one per model): 

1. Trump feeling thermometer (continuous) 

2. Clinton feeling thermometer (continuous) 

3. Difference Trump/Clinton feeling thermometers (continuous) 

As your independent treatment variable use treat2 (i.e., do not distinguish by race and partisan affiliation of the politician making the appeal). As an indicator of racial conservativism use raceresent where larger values indicate more racial conservativism and lower values indicate more racial liberalism. Besides these variables, you can control for other variables that you deem appropriate—however, in this survey experiment, omitted variable bias should be very moderate. You should, however control for the variable old-fash which measures old-fashioned racism. Your model should be as parsimonious as possible—you carry out a theory test. You should check for violations of assumptions and correct your models if you spot any.

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