Predicting Exchange Rates Via a Futures Market Assignment

Assignment Task

Your written report must include the following components 

• An Executive Summary
• A Table of Contents;
• A very brief introduction that discusses the purpose of the report, the report structure (which should reflect the scope of work performed) and any limitations;
• The body of the report including the outcomes of the research and analysis (Task 1) and the reflections of the participants during the simulated trading exercise (Task 2);
• A conclusion that summarises the analysis and findings;
• Appendices for detailed and/or large tables and figures; and
• A bibliography of references used should be included.

Use of tables and figures is strongly encouraged. When using tables and figures remember to label them and reference and discuss their content in the text. Detailed analysis can be contained in tables and appendices in preference to the main text. Remember diagrams are not included in your word count and may convey information more succinctly. An important tip: to avoid words being counted in your total, you can copy and paste tables and figures as embedded pictures.

Task

Market View You must select one (1) currency pair from the currencies listed below. You are required to analyse what will happen to the spot market price of each currency pair in the next 6 months. Your analysis will be based on the theory that was covered in the Week 7 Workshop (i.e. determinants of foreign exchange). Exchange rate determinants included the following comparative economic and non-economic indicators of the respective countries:

• Relative interest rates,
• Relative inflation rates,
• Relative growth rates;
• Commodity prices (terms of trade); and
• Other factors include government intervention and exchange rate expectations.

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