Previous Model to Incorporate the Fact that Death Rates - Statistics Assignment Help

Assignment Task :

When I planned this model (last October) there was no hint of any pandemic but things changed by the end of December as we all know. 

So your model becomes now even more relevant than ever before. I strongly suggest you search for the following article: “Decision making in the time of a pandemic”, by Martin Sanbu, FT Free Lunch, published 19th March, 2020. In this article he points out why the use of probabilities when modelling a pandemic will provide decision makers with some important information but then adds that the Imperial College model used by the Government as a guide in their management of the pandemic is deterministic which might be a problem. 

So now, more than ever, there is an urgent need for the type of model you will be producing. Hence, the first change in your model is that you are going to address the coronavirus problem. 

Also given that now the Monte Carlo model will account for 90% of the final mark, there are important changes. 

DATA 

Infection rate and death rates will change from those I suggested for the influenza pandemic model. I leave it up to you to find relevant data. If you use Chinese data you might wonder how accurate it will be and whether the outbreak in the UK will follow the same pattern. This is OK and you can use this data as long as you discuss your concerns and assumptions. You might be able to compare what’s been happening in the UK so far and adjust the values. You will need to do a lot of research (mostly google) and of reading to learn how the pandemic is being tackled. Data you quote has to be well documented, but if you are making an assumption (and this is possible in some cases) you need to state this clearly and give your reasons for the assumption you are making. While initially the brief stated that you needed to consider only mortality in the over-55 age group, this has been changed. Your model should consider mortality as a function of age. Remember that in the case of the coronavirus, mortality if affected by existing health issues. This is an important factor when considering mortality in younger patients. 

WHAT YOU NEED TO DO 
1. Deterministic model (no variability, no probabilities) 
2. Simple model using the infection rates you have identified from current data. For  this basic model you are not going to consider the age factor. 
3. Expand your previous model to incorporate the fact that death rates vary per age. 
4. Add to your model the gender factor (men are more likely to die than women if they get infected 
5. Add to model comorbidity factors (cancer, diabetes, HIV) 
 

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