Principles of Macroeconomics & Estimating The Consequences of A Lockdown - Economics Assignment Help

Assignment Task

Principles of Macroeconomics

This semester, you will complete four homework assignments. Each of these assignments will ask you to prepare a 1-2 page “policy memo” concerning a topic that involves concepts and data we will cover in class. Your task is to write a well-written, well-structured, and well-documented memo that addresses a given macroeconomic concern or question. Frequently, you will be asked to obtain and display quantitative macroeconomic evidence to support your arguments. Most of these memos will not necessarily have a “right” or “wrong” answer. Instead, we will offer suggestions of the elements a successful answer will contain. These objective elements of your assignment are intended to help reduce your uncertainty of what we are looking for, but they also offer you a degree of scope of freedom over what specific elements you choose to discuss. Nonetheless, it is your job to determine and present the most complete answer you can. 

Below are some suggestions to help you complete these memos: 

1. Your memo should be well-written, well organized, and structured in a clear and concise style; 

2. Each assignment will feature guidelines or waypoints of elements that you must include in your memo to receive full credit; these are intended to help you structure your argument; 

3. You must incorporate these elements into your memo; do not simply “answer” what is asked in each waypoint; 

4. The following apply to any empirical/data results you provide: 

•  All graphs require a title and labeled axes; 
•  Any lines on your graphs should be well-labeled; 
•  Graphs should include, as a note, the source where you obtained the data; • Graphs should be your own work; you cannot copy a graph from a website or a classmate; 
•  In your memo, you should include a brief note describing where you obtained your data and a clear description of any modifications you made to your data before presenting; 

5. When you upload your assignment to Gradescope, you will be asked to indicate where you have incorporated each waypoint into your discussion. To help you do this, we encourage you to include paragraph headings in your document, such as “Overview”, before the paragraph or two that include your Overview (see our first assignment below, for example). 

Memo 2: Estimating the Consequences of a Lockdown 

It is March 15, 2020 and you are an economic advisor to the Governor Wolf of Pennsylvania. The Governor would like you to prepare a memo providing some guidance on the economic consequences of imposing a lockdown—“ a statewide closure of all non-life sustaining businesses operations and services”—to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic. 

Unfortunately, you are concerned about using regional economic simulations run by the Bureau of Economic Analysis that you typically consult when preparing economic forecasts because their website cautions “Our simulations have limitations in cases of economic instability, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s because the model’s assumptions about how a region’s businesses and households operate and the goods and services they purchase are based on a stable economy.” So you must develop your own, back-of-the-envelope model. 

Your task is to produce a 2 page summary memo that develops predictions for the economic conse quences of a lockdown (see next page for suggestions on how to do this). 

1. Overview : A summary of your predicted effects of the lockdown with a simple explanation of the main reasons for your result. 

2. Model Summary : A brief description of your model so the Governor knows how you obtained your predictions. What are the theoretical elements you used? How do you interpret a lockdown in this model? 

3. Data Description : A discussion of the data you employed and how you used this data to obtain your predictions. 

4. Graphical Evidence : Provide a graph of GDP per Person in Pennsylvania from 2015 through 2019. On the same graph, show your forecasted value of GDP per Capita. 

5. Longer-Run Forecast : Conjectures (or guesses) about how the economy will respond when the lockdown ends. Will it return to its pre-pandemic level or to a new level? Why? Your answer should directly draw on features of your model. 

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