Highlights
Implement forward sampling for Bayesian networks specified using numpy like in the example above. The example specifies the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) in v0 – v4, and stores them in a list cpds, in the order that they should be processed during forward sampling.
There are also variables that list all parents of all nodes (parents), and the cardinality of each variable (cards), which means how many different values a variable can take.
Take the following steps:
1. Implement a function that returns a single sample, given a CPD and possibly some evidence. Follow the template in Listing 2 below. An example function call will then
look like this:
In [22]: sampleone(v2, [1, 0], [2, 2]) Out[22]: 1
In this example, we are drawing a sample from the CPD in v2, with evidence v0 = 1, v1 = 0. Cardinality of v0 and v1 is both 2, and the returned sample is 1.
2. Implement a function that forward-samples a whole Bayesian Network. Follow the template in Listing 3 below. An example function call will then look like this:
In [44]: forwardsample(cpds, parents, cards)
Out[44]: [0, 1, 2, 1, 0]
In this example, we get a list of values, with one value for each node in the Bayesian Network.
3. Implement a function that draws N samples from the Bayesian Network, and returns them in a list. Follow the example in Listing 4. An example function call to draw 3
samples will look like this:
In [47]: sample(3,cpds,parents,cards)
Out[47]: [[1, 0, 2, 0, 0], [0, 0, 2, 0, 0], [0, 0, 1, 0, 0]]
4. Implement rejection sampling using your methods from above, so that you can compute (estimate) p(v4 | v3 = 1). Use your approach multiple times, with increasing number of samples (start with N=20, increase in steps of 20 up to N=1000). Plot a graph from your results, with N on the x-axis, and the estimated probability on the y. Describe your results in 2-3 sentences
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