Internal Code: TV436
Research Report Assignment Help:
Task:
Managing Uncertainty
A considerable amount of research since the 1920s has been applied to the distinction between risk and uncertainty. It is argued that risk can be identified with a reasonable level of accuracy using data from the past. Uncertainty, on the other hand, is a spontaneous phenomenon especially when we consider natural events such as cyclones, earthquakes, and heavy or unseasonal snowfalls.
Uncertainty can arise from human activity such as foreign or civil wars, foreign currency exchange rates, or significant technological advances.
Please answer the following questions about uncertainty:
1. What distinguishes risk from uncertainty?
2. How can project managers mitigate and manage uncertainty in their projects?
3. What are black swans and what do they tell us?
Suggestion
This is a challenging set of questions that requires a review of the literature to fully address the nature of uncertainty. The books Antifragile by Nassim Taleb and Managing Risk and Uncertainty, A Strategic Approach by Richard Friberg are a good starting point. These are both available in the library. On the question of managing uncertainty, students should consider options and similar approaches as a method of eliminating downside uncertainty particularly in the prices of inputs for a project. Additional reference sources are included in subject readings.