Highlights
This part emphasises on the use of a DSS tool, and students are required to demonstrate proficiency with Visual DSS™ (a DSS development language/DSS generator).
Question 1
Sonoff Pty Ltd is a leading IoT (Internet of Things) company, which has wireless Wi-Fi smart home products to turn your home into a smart home at low price. In 2020, this company is planning to build a new product line to introduce LoRaWAN gateway products for future farming applications into the market in North Australia Under intense competitive environment, the company engaged a consulting firm to conduct a feasibility study. Senior management requires a thorough analysis of one smart gateway product that will be introduced to the market. As a senior business analyst in the consulting firm, you have been appointed to advise the senior management on the feasibility of the new product.
Develop a decision support model using Visual DSS using the variables described above. Include comments within your Visual DSS model to explain the variables and your calculations.
Based on the result of your model, what is the net present value (NPV)? Explain whether the claim regarding the NPV being above $1 million is correct or incorrect.
Question 2a
You are now asked to analyse the variations on the impact of market share, cost of producing, overheads and initial investment on the NPV. You need to conduct a risk analysis based on the information below:
a) Unit costs can be described by normally distributed, mean of $20, standard deviation of $3.
b) Market share: triangular distribution – the range from $16% to 25% with 20% as the most likely cost.
c) Overhead: could be as low as $90,000 per year or as high as $135,000 per year but is most likely to be $125,000 per year. The distribution could be represented using a triangular distribution.
d) Market growth can be uniformly distributed between 15% and 22%.
Your task:
You are required to use Visual DSS to run a Monte Carlo simulation (a Risk Analysis).
Produce a cumulative probabilities report and graph for the above question. Based on results and the decision criteria, explain whether the senior management should accept (willing) or reject (unwilling) the proposed production of the product.
Question 2b
When the above analysis reached the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of your company, he became very concerned about the assumptions made in the model. His experience has taught him to consider the uncertainty associated with improving selling price because of the integration of AI models in such a product. He required further analysis to be done by incorporating the following uncertainties to Question 1 model:
Selling price: normally distributed, mean of $35, standard deviation of $4
Unit costs: uniformly distributed between $18 and $22.
He applied different decision criteria and was willing to go ahead with the product proposal if there was at least an 80% chance the net present value would be greater than $2,000,000.
Your task:
You are required to use Visual DSS to run a Monte Carlo simulation (a Risk Analysis). Based on your results determine whether the CEO will proceed under these uncertainties.
Produce a cumulative probabilities report and graph for the question. Based on results and the decision criteria, will the CEO accept or reject the proposed production of the product?
PART B:
In this part, you are required to demonstrate data validation by using Power BI.
Power BI is a business analytics service provided by Microsoft. It provides interactive visualizations with self-service business intelligence capabilities, where end users can create reports and dashboards by themselves, without having to depend on information technology staff or database administrators
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