Highlights
There is widespread consensus among politicians, commentators, academics and public opinion that the UK has a housing crisis. There are several important aspects to our housing problems, including rising homelessness and an unusually insecure private rented sector. But the collapse in home ownership and historically high house prices are perhaps the most salient aspects of what commentators and policymakers refer to as the housing crisis. UK average house prices rose by 161% in real terms between the middle of 1996, the nadir of the last house price cycle, and the end of 2018.1 Over the same period they rose by a staggering 292% in London. Such high prices are, in turn, blamed for the collapse in home ownership, which fell from its peak of 70.5% in 2003 to 63.1% in 2016.2 When it comes to causes there is broad agreement, from the former Prime Minister, Theresa May, down, that one factor above all is to blame: decades of inadequate housing supply.3, 4 Numerous major public reports have made the case that supply has been insufficient to meet the country’s housing needs.5 In 2004, before the collapse in home ownership, and only part way through the huge rise in house prices seen over the past 20 years, the Barker Review concluded that there was “growing evidence of a persistent inadequate supply.”6 More recently the attribution of blame for the housing crisis has become increasingly definitive. “For decades we have failed to build enough homes to meet demand” opens the 2014 Lyons Review, “The consequences of this are widely felt. House prices and rents are going up faster than earnings because demand massively outstrips supply.
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