Highlights
The Case Study
TassPaperMill (TMP), a subsidiary of Pinnon Paper Industries (PPI), is an Australian company with a long history of manufacturing paper products. In 2019, TPM produced 6,000 tonnes of products and sold more than 5,800 tonnes of products to local and overseas markets.
TPM sells paper products to two market segments: (1) Newspaper and (2) Magazine, through either directly to customers or various intermediaries.
Despite solid financial performance over the last two decades, TPM is forecasting a significant shift in business climate within the next five years. TPM attributes the downturn to change in end-consumers preferences (i.e. online and social media). Now more than ever, TPM management feels the need to build a strong customer base. Besides, they would like to put in place a formal procedure to forecast turnovers using historical data.
Consequently, TPM commissioned ANALYTICS7 (a Market Research Company you work for) to conduct a large-scale survey of TPM customers to understand their characteristics, perceptions, and intent better.
Data Collection Process (Conducted by ANALYTICS7)
ANALYTICS7 invited the purchasing managers of TPM customers to participate in an online survey. TPM also provided data held in their data warehouse and the decision support system to ANALYTICS7 for the study.
Dataset (accessible via A2.xlsx file)
The dataset consists of 200 customer records. There are three different groups of information in this dataset. The first group of information comes from the TPM data warehouse and includes information about TPM customers such as brand loyalty in years; type; region, and distribution channel. The second group of information relates to customers' perceptions of TPM on various factors (TPM customers were asked to rate TPM on these attributes using a 1- 10 Scale.) The third group of information relates to the quantity purchased by the customers and whether they have signed a contract nominating TPM as their preferred supplier.
Your Role in ANALYTICS7
You are a modeller at ANALYTICS7. The team leader (Hugo Barra, with a PhD in Data Science and a master’s degree in digital marketing) has asked you to lead the modelling component for the TPM project and report the findings to him. The minutes of your team meeting are below.
Your task is to review and complete the modelling activities as per the document.
To accomplish allocated tasks, you need to examine and analyze the dataset (Excel.xlsx) thoroughly. Below are some guidelines to follow:
Task 1 – Summarizing dependent variables
The purpose of this task is to analyze and explore the key features of these variables individually. At the very least, you should thoroughly investigate relevant summary measures/charts and graphs of these variables. Proper visualizations should be used to illustrate key features.
Your technical report should describe ALL critical aspects of each variable.
Task 2. – Model building (Order_Qty)
You should follow an appropriate model building process. All steps (including pre and post model diagnostics) of the model building process should be included in your analysis. You can have as many Excel worksheets (tabs) as you require to demonstrate different iterations of your regression model (i.e., 2.2.a., 2.2.b., 2.2.c. etc.). You must make, and document, reasonable/realistic/practical assumptions about the parameters you are working within Task 2.
Your technical report should clearly explain why the model might have undergone several iterations. Also, you must provide a detailed interpretation of ALL elements of the final model/regression output.
Task 3. – Interaction effect
To accomplish this task, you need to develop a new regression model using ONLY the factors discussed in the team meeting (Item 3). In other words, this section of the analysis is separate from the regression model constructed in Task 2. You must make, and document, reasonable/realistic/practical assumptions about the parameters you are working within Task 3.
Your technical report should clearly explain the role of each variable included in the model. A suitable visualization technique should be provided. Make sure you interpret all relevant outputs in detail and provide managerial recommendations based on the results of your analysis.
Task 4.1 – Model building (likelihood of signing a contract)
You should follow an appropriate model building process. All steps (including pre and post model diagnostics) of the model building process should be included in your analysis. You can have as many Excel worksheets (tabs) as you require to demonstrate different iterations of your regression model. You must make, and document, reasonable/realistic/practical assumptions about the parameters you are working within Task 4.
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