The Mexton Machines Company Case Study - Management Assignment Help

Assignment Task:

Task:

Context
Decisions are often difficult because of complexity, uncertainty, multiple (competing) objectives, and different/competing perspectives, among other factors. Decision analysis provides both a framework and specific tools for organising a complex problem into a structure that can be analysed.

Although decision analysis does not claim to replace human intuition, it can help improve the decisions you make, in the sense of carefully considering and understanding all the relevant issues. That understanding must include the structure of the problem as well as the alternatives, objectives, trade-offs and an appreciation of which inputs are most important and deserve our time and attention (sensitivity analysis)—possibly yielding a recommended course of action.

This assignment attempts to encapsulate all the above issues and requires students to show their analytical, critical and systematic thinking skills. The first part of the assignment is a literature review which gives students the opportunity to demonstrate their awareness of applications of decisions analysis from a critical syntheses of the literature. The second part of the assignment is a case study, aimed at providing students the opportunity to select and apply appropriate decision analysis tools discussed in the course (and augmented by the literature review) to structure and analyse a complex real world decision problem.

The produced work will be assessed on the basis of a critical review of the relevant literature and ability to conceptualise, select and apply appropriate decision analysis tools to a real world decision situation, arriving at logical conclusions or recommendations. The assignment should be well presented, structured and referenced, acknowledging all sources used and using the Harvard Referencing System.

Key marking criteria include:

(a) Critical evaluation of literature;

(b) Ability to apply appropriate decision analysis techniques to a case study problem arriving at logical conclusions;

(c) Structure, presentation, logical flow of argument and academic writing;

(d) Use of references and evidence of wider reading.

Submission Guide/word limits

Your literature review (Part 1) should be approximately 2,500 – 3,000 words in length, excluding diagrams, footnotes, appendices and references; please state the word count at the cover page of your work.

Part 2 will be in the form of structuring/analysing a decision problem and answering short answer questions. Therefore a word limit may not be the most appropriate measure of the length of your answers. However, as a guide, aim for a total of about 1,500 words or about 500 words per short answer question.

Marking Criteria
This assignment is based on your critical review of the literature and application of decision analysis to a case study problem. The report should be well presented and referenced, acknowledging all sources used and employing the Harvard Referencing System. Along with the usual criteria such as structure, logical and smooth flow of argument and academic writing, other more in-depth performance indicators will be employed such as: critical evaluation, analytical perspective, and ability to apply appropriate decision analysis techniques arriving at logical conclusions.

Regulations

Please ensure that you clearly understand University of Lincoln Regulations governing Dishonesty & Plagiarism. The University define plagiarism as 'the passing off of another person's thoughts, ideas, writings or images as one's own. You must cite all sources on which you have relied, e.g. textbooks, articles, web- pages, etc., using the Harvard bibliographic referencing system (see the Harvard Referencing guide available at the University library website). Please do not include a general reading list (bibliography) that you may have read but not cited in your work.

Part 1: Literature Review (2500 – 3000 words)
Decision analysis is widely used in business and management (both private and public). In this part of the assignment, you are required to conduct a critical review of the academic literature on applications of decision analysis tools or techniques in business, management or public decision making. It is expected that the focus of your literature review is on applications of decision analysis tools/techniques covered in the course. After you have reviewed applications of decision analysis techniques covered in the module, you may include other techniques if necessary and if the recommended word length allows. Note that, you select academic literature of your own choice, primarily from your field of study and/or closely related fields. Note also that in your review, include both theoretical and empirical studies; however empirical studies is expected to form the bulk of your review. As a guide, we expect at least 15 references.

In your critical reading of individual studies, you should pay attention to the following information:

The objectives of the study, including the research questions investigated and/or hypotheses tested (if any)
 Methodology or research approach, including methods used to collect data if applicable.
  Methods of analysis, including specific decision analysis tools or techniques employed.
  A summary of key results

Then structure your writing thematically, in which themes fall naturally into sections and/or subsections. You may structure your writing thematically in the following sections:

Section 1 – General discussion on decision making in your field or discipline. This could include:
 what characterises “good” decisions in your field
 how are difficult decisions made in your field

Section 2: A review of applications DA Techniques (not necessarily in this
order) 2.1 Structuring decision problems: influence diagrams and decision trees
2.2. Making choices under uncertainty: decision trees and EMV
2.3. The role of sensitivity analysis in decision analysis
2.4. Applications of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).
Beware of variants in names; “multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)”
“multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)”. “multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM)”, “Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM)”. Also be aware of hyphened and non-hyphened versions; “multi-criteria” and “multicriteria” or multiple-criteria and multiple criteria
2.5. Applications of DELPHI Methods
2.6. Strategic investment decision-making: NPV and IRR criteria
Section 3: Conclusions – your reflections on what you have learnt from the literature review.

Part 2: The Mexton Machines Company Case Study
(Written as at January 2017)
The Mexton Machines Company was founded in the 1950's in the East Midlands of England. Originally, the company produced a range of small machines and tools for industry, but it expanded rapidly during the 60's and early 70's and acquired interests in industrial paint manufacture, pre-fabricated garages and building materials. New production units were opened in Leicestershire, Yorkshire and Bristol and the Head Office was moved to Loughborough. However, the company fared badly during the recession of the early 1980's. The paint manufacturing side of the business was scaled down and prefabricated garage production ceased.

In 1996 a new management team took over and it was decided that the company should diversify into the consumer goods market. A range of products was developed for the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) enthusiast including an electric drill and a car engine tuner. These are sold through the major DIY chains and hardware stores. To date, the products have been fairly successful, though sales are still small when compared with more established firms in this market. They also form only a relatively small part of the company's total turnover, as shown below:

Question 1

Apply decision tree analysis to model the decision problem facing Mexton Machines and advise the company on the policy or strategy that maximizes expected Net Present Value (NPV). Clearly state any assumptions you have made.

Guidance notes:
 Present your decision tree diagrams, clearly showing all probabilities and net present values at the end of the branches

 Follow the conventions of constructing decision trees, such as the basic shapes distinguishing decision nodes from chance nodes

 Clearly show all your workings explain/justify your recommendations

Question 2
Conduct a sensitivity analysis on your model and explain the implications to the Mexton Machines decision problem.

Guidance notes:

 Justify your selection of input variable(s) used as the basis of your sensitivity analyses

 Clearly show and explain the impact of your selected variables, with the aid of graphical representations

Question 3
Discuss the strengths and limitations of your analysis in the context of the the problem faced by Mexton Machines. In other words, outline the strengths and limitations of your decision tree analysis in terms of the usefulness of the guidance that it would provide to Mexton Machines managers.

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